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UBS Analysts Expect Apple to Face Financial Impact of iPhone 14 Pro Slowdown in 2023 — but it will eventually recover until 2024.
According to a report from UBS seen by AppleInsider, analysts downgraded their iPhone unit estimate by 5% in the December quarter and by 3% in fiscal 2023. While supply has improved and waiting times have been reduced in the US and China, Apple is still facing significant hurdles in the new year.
UBS previously estimated iPhone sales in the December quarter at about 83 million units, but cut that figure by 5% to 79 million units. March quarter estimates were also lowered to 58 million units due to extended lead times.
This means UBS expects Apple to ship 7 million fewer iPhones in 2023 — 232 million were shipped instead of the expected 239 million. However, analysts maintain an estimate of 239 million units for 2024.
These numbers reflect current wait times for high-end iPhones like the iPhone 14 Pro. Waiting times have been reduced, but not enough, and customers are waiting after the holidays to receive current orders.
The waiting time in China is now only 28 days, up from 36 days. And the US has reduced the waiting time from 25 days to 23 days.
Despite a one-time decrease in revenue due to the Christmas holidays, UBS maintains a price target of $180 due to core valuation and optionality. It is unclear where and how UBS obtains the iPhone shipment data, as Apple has not reported volumes for years at this point.