Supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has published a new research note in which he makes some Vision Pro predictions. Kuo expects Vision Pro shipments in the first year to be below market expectations. He's also not sure that a rumored low-cost version could arrive next year.
Kuo makes four points about the future of the Apple Vision Pro from debuting a $3,500 mixed reality headset in early 2024.
First, he expects maximum production capacity to be between 400,000 and 600,000 units next year. This is below the 1 million units expected by the market, he said. However, this is not the first time we have seen such figures discussed.
As for more a cheap version of the Vision Pro, that is, a non-Pro version with few bells and whistles, Kuo says Apple may have canceled that plan for now.
“Apple may have canceled the plan for a low-cost version of the Vision Pro (market expected to launch in 2025),” he wrote. “Unless Apple significantly reduces the price of the Vision Pro, the expected significant increase in Vision Pro shipments starting in 2025 may not materialize.”
Vision Pro 2
Kuo predicts that the successor to Apple's Vision Pro will appear no earlier than the second half of 2027. This means the Vision Pro hardware, unveiled in June 2023, could be what's on sale in the next few years.
His final note is that Apple's headset “may take longer what the market is expecting to become the next headset.” stellar iPhone product.” Kuo frames the challenge as convincing customers why they need spatial computing, not that the user experience is well done.
There may be no consensus on when the Vision Pro will become an iPhone-sized hit. The debate is still raging over whether the Vision Pro could be Apple's next iPhone.
The debate is about the long term, however. Apple will sell as many Vision Pro devices as it can produce. The high price doesn't really matter given the low production volumes.
Apple might even leave money on the table in the first year. Why offer a cheaper version or upgrade the original if you can't meet demand with OG Pro?
You can read our how-to guide to Vision Pro here. Apple says the product will be released in the US early next year.