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The waiting time for iPhone 14 Pro models reaches extreme levels two months after launch, and cheaper models are not making up for demand.
In a note to investors from investment bank UBS seen by AppleInsider, analyst David Vogt found that wait times for iPhone 14 Pro models have increased again. Using data that tracks iPhone availability in 30 countries, UBS says lead times in most markets, including the US, have reached around 34 days.
This number has increased from seven days at the beginning of November and 19 days at the end of October. In China, the time is 36 days, which is ten days longer than at the beginning of November.
Because consumers have been waiting for the iPhone 14 Pro or iPhone 14 Pro Max for so long, UBS expected people to buy one of the cheaper iPhone 14 models instead. However, this is not the case, and Vogt named the wait time for the iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus “insubstantial.”
Customers can efficiently walk into an Apple or carrier store or order online and receive a base model iPhone 14 or iPhone 14 Plus with virtually no waiting time.
There is some risk
Although it’s good that Apple smartphones are so popular, UBS believes there is some risk to the company if it fails to meet demand during the critical holiday season. iPhone divisions may not reach a consensus unless waiting times improve in the coming weeks.
As a result, iPhone revenue may remain flat year-over-year compared to the consensus forecast of about 2% growth and nearly 10% iPhone revenue growth in the September quarter.
UBS Bank forecasts that iPhone shipments in the December quarter will reach 83 million units, slightly below the forecast of 86 million units forecast earlier in November.
The investment bank lowered its AAPL price target to $180 from $185 in its latest report. The target is approximately 25 times earnings per share in calendar year 2022 of $6.58.
At a 25x increase, Apple will trade at a multiple-turns-off from its one- and three-year moving average, down from more than 30x earlier in 2022.